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Swing Trading

Holding for weeks, not minutes: spotting trends and riding them.

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Frameworks for this subject

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Stage Analysis

Stan Weinstein · 1988

Beginner

Classifies any stock into one of four phases so you buy in the phase where trends actually run.

What it asks you to do

  • Sorts price action into four stages: basing, advancing, topping, declining.
  • Uses a long-term moving average (Weinstein used the 30-week) and its slope to tell the stages apart.
  • Restricts buying to Stage 2 — the advancing phase — and selling into Stage 3 or 4.
  • Requires volume expansion to confirm a move out of a base.

Where it struggles

Stage labels are obvious in hindsight and ambiguous in real time. Ranges and false breakouts routinely produce stage changes that reverse within weeks.

Source: Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

CAN SLIM

William J. O'Neil · 1988

Intermediate

A seven-part checklist combining company fundamentals with price behaviour and overall market direction.

What it asks you to do

  • C and A: demand recent quarterly and sustained annual earnings growth.
  • N: look for something genuinely new — product, management or a new price high.
  • S: prefer a smaller share supply, and watch for buybacks.
  • L: buy leaders in a group, not laggards.
  • I: require evidence of institutional sponsorship.
  • M: only act when the general market direction supports it.

Where it struggles

Strict growth screens exclude most of the market and cluster into whichever sector is currently hot, so the approach concentrates risk exactly when a theme is most crowded.

Source: How to Make Money in Stocks

Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP)

Mark Minervini · 2013

Advanced

Identifies bases where each pullback is shallower than the last, indicating supply drying up before a breakout.

What it asks you to do

  • Measures successive corrections within a base and requires each to be tighter than the previous.
  • Requires volume to contract alongside price, then expand sharply on the breakout.
  • Defines a pivot — the precise price where the trade is triggered.
  • Sets the stop below the final, tightest contraction, which keeps risk small.

Where it struggles

Highly discretionary. Two experienced traders will count contractions differently on the same chart, which makes it hard to test and hard to apply consistently.

Source: Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard

Relative Strength (RS)

Robert A. Levy; later popularised by O'Neil · 1967

Beginner

Ranks a stock by how it has performed against a benchmark, rather than by its own price move.

What it asks you to do

  • Compares a stock's return to an index over a chosen lookback.
  • Converts the comparison into a percentile rank across the universe.
  • Directs attention to the strongest names instead of the cheapest-looking ones.

Where it struggles

Backward-looking by construction. A high rank describes what already happened, and ranks decay fastest exactly at trend turns.

Source: Relative Strength as a Criterion for Investment Selection (Journal of Finance)

Market Breadth

No single originator; standard market-internals practice

Beginner

Measures how many stocks participate in a move, rather than how far a weighted index travels.

What it asks you to do

  • Counts the share of stocks above a chosen moving average.
  • Compares advancing to declining issues.
  • Flags divergence, where an index rises while participation falls.

Where it struggles

A description of the present, not a timing tool. Breadth confirms trends after they begin and deteriorates after tops have already formed.

Source: Advance/decline analysis, in use since the early 20th century

Articles

No Swing Trading articles published yet — the frameworks above are the reference for now.